Positives:
All around positive mood still intact
Non-stop FII buying in cash market
Economy is opening up
Negatives:
Rating scare: Moody’s down graded India’s Sovereign rating to just one grade above “Junk”
US protests are escalating
Both US & China are not backing down on Hong Kong
Global Markets: Positive
European markets ended in red and US markets managed to end slightly in green. The positive mood in the other assets/ markets are still intact. Both Copper and MSCI Emerging market index continue to raise. Volatility index is still trending lower. US Dollar was lower and Gold was slightly higher on account of US Dollar weakness.
ASIAN Markets this morning: - Mixed reaction
Japanese, Korean and Indonesian markets are up and continue their relief rally while Australian and Chinese markets were slightly down this morning. The European and US futures are down in the Asia trading session. SGX Nifty trades flat at around 9810 levels.
Calendar events
India’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) that came out yesterday was below expectations. Service’s PMI will be released today by 10.30 AM. It is expected to be in the range of 23 Vs previous reading of 5.4. Asian PMI was mostly down barring China and Malaysia where economy had opened up little earlier. However there is a hope in the market that the PMIs are bottoming out across the region.
India: -Rating shock…. but no shock
Global rating agency Moody’s downgraded India’s Sovereign rating by one notch to Baa3 which is just one notch above non-investment grade. This news should have sent a shock waves in the SGX Nifty and USDINR markets when it came out yesterday evening. However, a small spike on USDINR was quickly retraced and there was no reaction on SGX Nifty.
So it has been "Mea" kind of reaction to Rating downgrade. Therefore, I feel that the rating action was expected and already discounted by markets.
However, today markets will mostly go the way FIIs go. Therefore, traders need to watch out for any signs of FIIs selling at market top.
Result announcement:
Britannia, Indigo and Motherson Sumi will release their results today and Cholamandalam Finance will release their result tomorrow.
NIFTY -Technical Bias: Price Action & Pattern:
Nifty yesterday held the break out and stayed comfortably above 9800. However, today’s market reaction is all going to be dependent upon FIIs reaction to Moody’s downgrade. Chances are that FIIs may use the opportunity and buy the dips. However, today is that day where traders need to be on the guard, nimble and move fast. Nifty could be range bound between 9750-10K
Trade Ideas:
I will be on the guard and be ready to move quickly. I will manage the existing positions and wait for clear direction for new positions.
