Positives:
Global stock indices are positive and trending up for couple of days now
Industrial metal, Crude, Emerging markets are all up
VIX index is falling globally
Negatives:
More revelation about inadequacy of stimulus package that it is only amounts to 1-2% of GDP
SGX index is up but hesitating below 9K
Global Markets: - Vaccine hopes
Global markets are up and volatility index are down as Moderna’s virus vaccine is raising hopes of end to the pandemic. WTI Crude oil future and Industrial metal are continuing to trend up. Hedge funds are adding up long position on Crude futures and options. Safe haven assets US Dollar and Gold have stopped raising. Emerging market ETF is also up
ASIAN Markets this morning: - Positive
Asian markets are following western markets and are mostly trading in positive territory this morning. SGX Nifty is up about 150+ points and has recovered almost half of yesterday’s fall. However its hesitating to move above 9000 and to follow other Asian and global markets up.
Calendar events
No major economic events are scheduled for this week.
India: Inadequate Stimulus is hurting the sentiment.
There are more views and analysis coming in from economists and others that the stimulus package is much lower than what was announced. This is hurting the sentiment in the market. There is also no end to lockdown with virus count raising faster.
FIIs have been continuously selling in cash segment.
Rating agencies seems to be not worried about the fiscal deficit as actual stimulus package does not involve much of cash out flow for the government. This is a positive for Rupee and bond markets.
Result announcement:
Airtel result was bad and reported a loss of Rs.52.37 billion for the quarter.
NIFTY -Technical Bias:
Price Action & Pattern:
Nifty should quickly recover above 9000 in order to arrest the fall. The global positive sentiment could help shack off the hesitation of Nifty to move up. However local factors may keep nifty pinned between 8800-9000. Therefore, I expect a recovery in the morning session that may not sustain.
Trade Ideas:
Option spreads suitable for range bound markets are suitable for today’s trade
