Last week global markets ended on a negative note, with US Dow Jones Index closing down by more than 2%. PMI data for several economies for April’20 points to deep economic recession. US PMI fell to 36.1, sharpest contraction in output in series history due to COVID-19 impact
ASIAN Markets this morning:
Asian markets this morning are down as well. US futures are trading with negative bias in the morning Asia trading session. Safe heavens assets US Dollar and Gold are up. Incoming PMI data from South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam are all pointing to economic collapse in the region.
India Manufacturing PMI for April will be out today by 10.30 AM. PMI is expected to fall to 41. That will mean only a moderate contraction in the output in comparison to other economies.
There has no major development on the macro front in India. SGX Nifty is at 9358. This suggests a deep gap down opening for Nifty.
There are no heavy weights announcing results today. NIIT TECH is one notable name that will announce result tomorrow. Yes Bank will announce its results day-after-tomorrow.
NIFTY -Technical Bias:
Price Action & Pattern:
Although Nifty decisively broke out of diamond topping pattern last week. Events since then are not encouraging. Reliance results and global sentiment will way on the index today. Nifty could gap down heavily today.
Index opening sharply down is difficult to trade in the morning session. A strategy is to wait till afternoon and see if the down trend will continue. IF that is the case, probably Nifty could go down to test 8800 levels.
Hence a bear vertical spread is appropriate if the down trend stays during the day.